Castro promised the Cuban people that he is going to force the United Sates to return Antonio Guerrero, Gerardo Hernández, René González, Fernando González y Ramón Labañino, the convicted Cuban spies that are serving lengthy prison sentences in the U.S.
His most potent weapon to negotiate their release is to allow a mass exodus of Cubans the U.S. He also holds several high profile fugitives from the US. Castro is a driven man with clear objectives. His goal is a succession not a transition upon his demise.
To that end the return of the convicted spies is of paramount importance. It will secure his stature as the “Defeater of Imperialism” with the younger generation. Castro has approached the U.S on several occasions with the idea of a negotiated prisoners exchange; however, the Bush administration has refused, thus far, fearful of the reaction of the Cuban-American voters.
Each time the answer was not “no” but rather “not now.” An election year in the US is an ideal time to force the issue.
Jeb Bush is, at this moment, almost assured of reelection as the Governor of Florida. Thousand of Cuban rafts trying to reach the Florida coast may change his political future. The majority of Americans are demanding an end to the travel restrictions with Cuba. The strategy appears to be: to get Jeb elected in November, and then negotiate with Castro before the general election in 2004. Meanwhile, the W administration will not do anything that would upset Castro. Castro’s side of the bargain is to keep the Miami Cubans at bay, by reaction, until after November.
The aging dictator knows that the Cubans are the only exile group in history whose main purpose is not to return to the homeland but rather to leave it.
It is difficult for the exiles to pontificate to Cubans on the island to stay and fight while their own belly is full. The exiles can not continue sending money and consumer goods to their relatives in the island and the same time opposing their flight, by any means to South Florida.
100,000 Cubans fleeing to the U.S can hardly be construed as an act of war on Castro’s part any more than half a million Mexican crossing the US-Mexico border is an act of aggression on Mexico’s part. Nevertheless, the threat of another exodus will set up the basis for Castro to start negotiating the return of his spies in exchange for extradition of the US fugitives from justice that are living in Cuba.
